# Month: October 2019

# A New Possible, Sunspot Duration/Amplitude Predictor

First of all, go to SILSO, and look at the Central chart labelled on the Home page: “Sunspot number series: latest update”.

Now enlarge the image by clicking on it, then compare and contrast the current sunspot cycle minimum, which is VERY clearly now reaching a minimum, to the one in the 2008-2010 interval at the end of cycle 23.

If we subtract out the 10-30 SN number from the current data, to make it close to the historical, visible sunspot data, we see that the current sunspot minimum has been going on since about 2-3 months around 1 Jan. 2018.

Now, and this is the critical comparison which creates the interesting new information. If we measure out in time around the Jan. 2008 time, as the time when the minimum of cycle 23 began, and compare that to when it began to rise out of the minimum, when the current cycle 24 began, Make a visual inspection.

TWO years later, almost exactly, Cycle 24 had begun, Clearly.

NOW, here’s the juicy part. Add those SAME two years to the current end, minimum of cycle 24, and we get about 3 months more, until cycle #25 should begin. IFF, likely, it’s the same intensity as cycle 24.

And that’s interesting because of a simple, single point made. They are predicting and continuing to predict it will come out every time, earlier on the upper red dashed curve, and then moving that further out in time, when it’s clearly wrong and delayed. Thus playing both ends.

So, we have this conundrum. We should see by the End of 2019, and by early 2020, if the two cycles (24 & 25) are the same, as is being predicted by many models, then cycle 25 needs to start there, at. least within a few month of that time.

NOW, comes the cool finding. IF the sunspot cycles, substantially, we see a much longer gap between them from 24 to 25, compared to cycle 23 & 24. And if we see a further lengthening time, before cycle 25, then it means that cycle 25 maxima are likely to be shorter, And of lower amplitude.

This means, clearly, that if by spring 2020, that Cycle 25 has NOT begun, that it will likely be of less intensity than cycle 24, AND the earth will cool.

Strictly, however, but without this key insights of comparing cycle intensities, minima lengths & sizes with the size of the minima gaps, we can predict more likelihood what the cycles will rise to. It takes ca. 3 years into a new cycle to get a 95% likelihood what the peak length& intensity of a cycle is, using current, traditional methods & predictors.

However, this method, if valid, will give a value much, much faster than that. And if Cycle 25 is delayed to Fall, as some models predict, then cycle 25 will likely be much smaller than 24.

And THAT dear friends, means cooler weather in the coming years, and Zharkova was right. Years before it can be found by averaging methods NOT yet applied scientifically nor confirmed for a declining sunspot cycle. The two methods are NOT strictly applicable: Rising sunspot cycles & failing, Falling cycles.

This is what’s going on. We might well know there’s cooling coming, therefore, within a 6-12 mos. time, well before the usual stats.

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I apology for the detail in all of this. But it’s important to make the case, logically, evidentiarily, and clearly.

We will know by mid summer to fall of 2020 if the Cycle 25 will be Significantly weaker than 24, likely.

Just in time for the election, too!!!

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Time will tell if this hypothesis is correct.